Kudus Research and Advocacy center a Ghanaian base organization did a study on the upcoming elections of Ghana would like to share it with the public.
The election of Ghana would be held on the 7th December 2020 that’s presidential and parliamentary. The presidential election is won based on a popular votes system of which a candidates needs 50+1 voters of valid votes cast to be declared the winner and if any political party didn’t get the needed votes then goes running off of which the two top candidates battle it out in the second round of voting, The parliamentary election is won based on a simple majority of valid votes cast obtained by a candidate or first past the post system, all the about 275 seats of parliament are up for the contest.
We seek to unravel the upcoming elections possible outcomes taken into consideration was the two major political parties the New Patriotic Party (NPP) led by the incumbent president Nana Akuffo Addo and the National Democratic Congress (NDC) led by former president John Draani Mahama, taken into consideration was their manifestos, head to head of the candidates their political party and generic or opinion polls conducted by other organizations.
With regards to head to head of the political parties since the inception of the 1992 constitution, they are 7 elections held in Ghana so the fare of which the NDC won 4 and NPP won 3 and they are heading to the 8 elections meaning NDC ahead despite NPP boycotted the 1992 elections. With regards to the two candidates, Nana Addo and John Mahama the two met in the 2012 elections and 2016 elections John Mahama won in 2012, and Nana Addo in 2016 now the two heading to 2020 for their third contest.
John Mahama an underdog for he was the first seating president to lose an election in Ghana with a heavy margin to Nana Addo in 2016. Historically also since 1992 there is no political party that has won one term in office irrespective of the party in power in Ghana and the 2020 election would be no exceptions, we noted making the NPP as clear favorites heading to 2020 but Kurac also noted that this two-term historical fact could be the cause of John Mahama defeat and if it’s the case then he will lose again, for Ghanaians voters will give NPP another four years to govern.
Finally, on the head to head according to research conducted by Kudus research and Advocacy center any incumbent political party goes to the polls with about 15%-25% of the votes in its second consecutive term bid making NPP favorable in the upcoming elections.
With regards manifesto, NPP goes to the polls with its manifesto tried and tested accepted by the Ghanaian voters in 2016 now they would be voted based on promised made and kept with an enhanced message that would convince voters like their flagship Free Senior High School policies that gave them power, now they are enhancing their policies with Education Health Agricultural trade among others with varying offers, the NDC Manifesto goes to the polls as an underdog for in 2016 was rejected by the Ghanaian voters based on a failed promise made, now they have enhanced their manifesto on Health Education Agriculture among others with a lot of free offers they rejected in 2016 and now adding them making their current 2020 manifesto slightly ahead of that of NPP for free SHS has been silenced with Free basic health to maintain the Free SHS itself among other free offers of a developing country needs such offers for same gave the NPP power.
But generally NPP manifesto ahead of that of NDC in the sense that their flagship policy free SHS still be implemented with other add on and surprisingly NDC turns legalization of commercial motorcycle business known as “OKADA” as its flagship policy of which in the 21st century not a good policy or moves, and also looking at their targeted voters most of them are within areas where they are high illiteracy rates who pay little attention to manifesto not only those areas alone but Ghana as a whole.
With regards to generic or opinion polls according to Kudus Research and Advocacy Center-Kurac conducted 20th February to 7th March 2020, Nana Akuffo Addo NPP had 54% and NDC John Mahama had 46%. Also, according to Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) released 21st July 2020 predicts a win for the NPP Nana Addo, IEA also predicted 57% approval for Nana Addo Global InfoAnalytics polls suggests John Mahama leading Nana Addo in the buildup to 2020 among others we looked into meaning Nana Addo and the NPP have high chances of winning the elections than that of John Mahama and the NDC. But still, fresh in our minds a renowned Ghanaian pollster Ben Ephson who is noted for his accurate predictions since 1992 predicts a win for John Mahama in 2016 but didn’t come to pass making Kurac very cautious of relying on generics or opinion polls predictions.
With regards to the parliamentary elections since 1992, any political party that wins the presidential election usual wins the majority of the parliamentary seats, and we and anticipates a majority seats win for the NPP in the upcoming elections, as currently, they have 169 seats and NDC have 106 seats and a political party needs 128+ seats to win for a simple majority in parliament.
With the above at the 95% confidence level, we can conclude that the New Patriotic Party and Nana Akuffo Addo would win the upcoming elections in both the presidential and parliamentary. But the Ghanaian voters are the best judges.
By: Yussif Abdul Kudus
Founder & Executive director Kurac